A very busy day yesterday, so a less comprehensive post than usual. Before I get there, a note: two more of my inequality primers are now free at the Stone Center site. The list so far:Why Did the Rich Pull Away from the Rest? Paul Krugman, Understanding Inequality: Part IThe Importance of Worker Po
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.Vladimir Orlovsky Storm Clouds 1884To a worrying extent, the US stock market is driven by a group of huge global tech players, whose revenues are 40 percent global. Economic indicators that are closer to home tel
On Wednesday, July 23, 2025 Columbia University announced what it called a "resolution" and "agreement" with the Trump administration. I don't want to get into the details of this "deal", or the sagacity of believing that an "agreement" with the Trump administration is worth anything. In the broader
For many months, it has been beyond reasonable doubt that the Israeli government, the Israeli military, sections of Israeli politics and society as well as their aiders and abetters abroad, have been deliberately starving the population of Gaza with a view to forcing the population either to flee or
In my last Substack I discussed the concept of homoploutia. In brief, for those who do not feel like (re)reading my entire post, it is based on the empirical observation that in modern capitalist societies an increasing share of the rich are rich in two dimensions: they are among the best paid worke
How China was hollowing out Germany's manufacturers before the loss of cheap Russian energy made matters worse.
Photo by Vidar Nordli-Mathisen on UnsplashI think it's pretty uncontroversial to say that the MAGA movement is the most powerful and important political movement in America today, by a wide margin. Trump's control of the presidency, and his unprecedented domination of the Republican Party, mean that
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.A Ship for Canada in a United Kingdom Shipyard Her Majesty's Stationery Office (HMSO) and Waterlow and Sons Ltd (active 1810–1960s) and Charles Pears (1873–1958) Manchester Art GalleryYKK has spent decades mastering
A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was allegedly starring in, where after offering my views on Palantir's valuation, I was soliciting investors to invest with me (or with an investment entity that had ties to me). I was not surprised, since I have
In this episode of *The Intentional Investor*, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—global capital markets veteran, writer, and founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for a conversation that’s equal parts myth, markets, and meaning. From working on privatization deals in Cairo and Hong Kong’s ETF de
Photo by Previn Samuel on UnsplashI really believe that Indian industrialization is one of the most important stories in the world today. The fate of over a billion people — most of them still pretty poor — hinges crucially on the question of whether the world's most populous nation can lift itself
The meteoric rise of the S&P 500 since the Great Financial Crisis has dominated financial headlines and sparked a provocative question among investors: Is value investing dead? The spectacular performance of growth stocks, particularly mega-cap technology companies, has led many to write the obituar
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.Kate Diehn-Bitt (German, 1900-1978). Source: Rostock Art GalleryWhat if America's red states are about to lose their cheap-housing advantage?A study by Edward Glaeser of Harvard University and Joseph Gyourko of the
What I wrote just before Trump took officeIf stagflation breaks out under an authoritarian regime, but officials aren't allowed to report the numbers, did it make a sound?Over the past six months we've watched institution after institution corrupted by the Trump administration. Institutions that mig
We have guests for the next couple of days, and it would be rude to spend the whole time chained to the computer. So this post and maybe the next will be short and somewhat meta.On Tuesday I talked to Greg Sargent of the New Republic; transcript here. I highly recommend subscribing to Greg's podcast
Do you know Kevin Alexander? He's the author of the brilliant "On Repeat Records" Substack, a weekly music discovery newsletter that's become essential reading for anyone... The post Grow Your Network: Kevin Alexander Is A Music Discovery Engine Disguised As A Human Being appeared first on Epsilon T
On August 4, 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 73,000 payrolls were created. More importantly May's job gains were revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's gains were revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. That means the three-month average of monthly payroll gains has fallen sh
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.Martin Barré (1924-1993), Sans titre.How AI is undoing the search-bargain on which the internet has hitherto depended Read more
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.Chuta Kimura, "Rainy Clouds", 1987. Source: ExtrafilespaceThe shape of globalization as mapped by the IMF. Three key take aways:Trade uncertainty has truly rocketed. Global imports are no longer increasing as a shar
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.Victor Burgin, 1991More US sectors are experiencing job losses than job gains, this normally betokens a recession. Read more
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.Lucy Jones (British, born 1955). "Nelson Street from Drummond Place" (2015). Source: Broughton's SpurtleSince the 2010s, the rise in US liabilities to foreign investors has driven a dramatic plunge into net indebted
Welcome to the first book wrap-up of this publication! Every month, I will be sharing my thoughts and reflections about the books I read, which will hopefully fall under a wide range of genres and topics, as diversifying my reading and being able to discuss with others is one of the main objectives
Henry Farrell is one of my favorite international relations experts, co-author of a fascinating book about "weaponized interdependence" that was the basis for a great event last year at CUNY's Graduate Center. It's even more relevant now, with America under new management. And Henry has also been wr
Photo by Abode of Chaos via OpenverseDuring the Biden years, a lot of us thought that the next era of world history would be defined, in large part, by economic and geostrategic competition between the U.S. and China. That's looking a little less likely these days. Donald Trump still makes the occas
When Laurie Kaye was a kid, in – let’s just call it a less-than-perfect home situation, she’d often retreat to her room and hide under the covers.... The post The Day The Music Died Vs. The Days The Music Lives: Laurie Kaye and Kevin Alexander on JUST PRESS RECORD appeared first on Epsilon Theory.
Looking back, the first few months of this summer feel to me like a slow escape from the terrible vortex of US politics. This happened in July in China, not in Germany. Berlin is obsessed with Germany's new government and with Trump, triggering endless painful questions about Columbia etc etc. Preci
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.Alastair Kinroy, Roy, the PharaohBefore COVID the US and the rest of the AE world were not on the same growth trajectory, since COVID this has been even more true. Read more
Thank you for your support of Chartbook. Your generosity keeps this show on the road.Sydney William Carline (British, 1888–1929). "The Trail of War." Source: York Art GalleryAs in Trump's first term, the US stock market is increasingly uncoupled from the uncertainty his administration generates. The
First off: two more of my inequality primers are now free at the Stone Center web site. The list so far:Why did the rich pull away from the rest?The importance of worker powerA Trumpian diversionOligarchs and the rise of mega-fortunesNow, on to current events.Trump has now announced a trade "deal" w
Many people use GDP to make claims about changes in people's welfare over time. This is entirely reasonable, and would likely be correlated with any reasonable measure of people's welfare. It is not, however, perfect, and it will miss things. First, it often does not include many things which we mig
Palmer Luckey, the CEO of autonomous weapons systems maker Anduril, is being heralded as the potential savior of America's defense industry. He's not.
A look at modern Iran's grand strategy and the danger of continued Western underestimation.
Mike Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify, has been kicking around the active-passive debate with me for years now, and I find him to be one of the best-read, and honestly most open-minded people on the topic. We've had an absolute raft of new academic research on the impact of passive on markets and
Today, instead of writing about economics as usual, I thought I'd do a culture post. I've given my lists of favorite sci-fi novels and anime series, so I thought I'd do another list — my favorite immigrant memoir comics.Immigrant memoir comics are my guilty pleasure. I just can't get enough of readi
The US government has a host of programs to support small businesses. Small businesses are eligible for subsidized loans from the Small Business Administration, which spends billions a year for this purpose. A portion of federal contracts are set aside for small businesses, with the Biden administra
Photo by The White House via Wikimedia CommonsDonald Trump's popularity continues to slowly erode:Source: Nate SilverHe's now underwater on almost all of the issues, even on his signature issue of immigration.And at least as of a couple weeks ago, Democrats were leading Republicans in generic ballot
A former Fed economist explains in detail how the central bank has been using dodgy accounting to hide losses from impermissible subsidies
Source: Boston GlobeIn economist-speak, Friday's jobs report brought the "hard data" into line with the "soft data." Before Friday, anecdotal evidence and independent surveys generally pointed to an economy facing major headwinds as a result of erratic policy, but official employment numbers still s
Photo by Fahad Faisal via Wikimedia CommonsI was going to write about U.S. politics today, but sweatshops came up in an online discussion, so I'll write about that instead. It's so rare to have interesting, substantive discussions about economic policy on social media, so I relish the chance to dive
The Aug. 1 deadline has come and gone, and Donald Trump hasn't made any trade deals. What some gullible reports call "deals" are at best "frameworks" in which other countries have suggested — without signing anything — that they'll do things that might help the U.S. economy. For the most part even t
Showing 40 of 106 articles